I wrote a down and dirty analysis of what I think might happen when the LCMS splits (I don't think it is an if anymore, but when.) So, here is a slightly more coherent post on what I thought might happen.

First, the Confessional side. I believe there will be three groups coming from the confessional churches. The first is what I call the "Radical Waltherians." This would include anyone who spends too much time on Lutherquest or Reclaiming Walther. Basically, these people will hang their hat on the authority of Voters Meetings. Secondly, there will be the middle-high church catholics. These people believe in the liturgy and that chanting isn't a bad thing. They tend to have a higher view of the pastoral office, and probably spend their days reading Gottesdienst and telling anyone they meet that the liturgy isn't an adiaphoron. The third group is the WELS/ELS migraters. They already made up their minds that they are heading to greener pastures and they only need a good excuse to push them there.

The Non-confessional side will also break into three. While they are better organized and vote as a block in most things, there are enough differences between these three groups to cause ruptures and fissures once the confessionals leave. The first is the Jesus First(NI!) crowd. This group of wannabe American Evangelicals will continue to be Ablaze and set fire to the purpose driven(TM) world until they reform themselves into oblivion. They will split from their Daystar(NI!) political allies because this group, while not being confessional, is conservative and can't stomach the thought of allegorizing Genesis 1-13. Daystar (NI!) are all the liberals that weren't honest enough to leave after the walkout or they colloquialized their way into the LCMS and have decided to infect our synod. They will find Daystar turning against them like vultures on carrion. They will find refuge with the ELCA "confessionals" and begin ordaining women. The third group is the RIM (Renewal in Missouri) group who are Pentecostals running around in Lutheran clothing. They will probably find refuge with one of the more independent church groups who actually buy into that nonsense.

So, this is my analysis. It might be completely off, but it might also be right on. Who knows. We'll just have to wait until it happens, and that could be a while.